Mock Draft #1.0

SPECIAL GUEST WRITER – THE MASKED DRAFTSMAN
The Masked Draftsman is one of the most knowledgeable draft experts that I know. He is a multi Fantasy Football League champion. He is so famous among the Fantasy Football and NFL Draft communities, he requested to keep his identity anonymous. I can only say his initials are JF. Thanks to the Masked Draftsman, we can get great initial insight in this year’s NFL Draft.

1. Miami Dolphins - Jake Long, OT - Michigan

Needs OT, DL, LB, CB

With the Tuna making some key trades and FA signings changes what the team will do in the draft. With the Dolphins signing McCown and still having Beck on the team I don’t see them taking Matt Ryan. The team traded for Cowboys Ferguson to be the DT, Chris Long is an option. Look for the Tuna to trade out of this spot if possible.


2. St. Louis Rams - Chris Long, DE - Virginia

Needs DE, OL, CB, OLB, WR

The team got hit hard by the injury bug and the main position was the OL. If Jake Long falls past the Dolphins the Rams will take him. But since Jake Long is off the board the Ram’s will take the other Long, Howie’s kid Chris Long. The Rams took Carriker last year and move him to DT and Long will help the DL and one of the worst Defenses in the league last year.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB – Boston College
Needs QB, OT, DT, S
With the Falcons signing the #1 FA RB the Falcons won’t be taking McFadden. But they will look long and hard at Dorsey or Ellis. But when it comes down to it QB was the biggest weakness last year. When you have to start Joey Harrington, Leftwich and Redman you are in trouble. Ryan is the Top rated QB and this will be the start of a new era in Atlanta.

4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB - Arkansas

Needs OT, DE, DT, WR

With Al Davis running the show you never know what he will do! The Raiders just re-signed DE/DT Tommy Kelly to a huge contract (and over paid). With that signing they still could use a person like Dorsey to take the place of Warren Sapp but Al Davis likes his Flashy players with speed so McFadden will be the pick even thou they just resigned Fargas. Look for Jordan and Rhodes to be cut later on in the year. Davis will also look to trade this pick and if they do I think the Cowboys will be the team.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Clady, OT – Boise State

Needs OT, G, WR, DT, CB

The Biggest thing with the Chiefs will be do they reach for a player of the biggest need or do they go for a Value (BPA). The Chiefs NEED OL help badly. An they pray that Jake Long will fall this far. I would think that they Chiefs would like to trade down or they should go for Value and take Dorsey with this pick. But they need OL help so bad they will reach and take Clady.

6. New York Jets – Vernon Gholston, DE – Ohio State

Needs WR, OLB, ILB, S

The Jets did a couple big moves already this early in FA. They traded away Vilma, Robertson (if passes physical and agrees to a new deal) and traded for Kris Jenkins. They also made OG Faneca the highest paid OL in the NFL. They will continue the revamp of the defense and go with Gholston that can play DE or OLB the 3-4 scheme that the Jets want to use.

7. New England Patriots – Leodis McKelvin, CB - Troy

Needs CB, WR, LB, S, OL, RB

The Patriots are getting killed in FA. They have lost Samuels, Gay, Stallsworth and they have yet to re-sign Randy Moss. I think that CB is a major issue for this team since they lost the #1 and #2 CB on last years team to FA. McKelvin gets the slight nod over Jenkins as the Top CB. They team could also reach for the #1 LB in Rivers or go with a Value Pick and take Dorsey. Dorsey just doesn’t fit well with a 3-4 defense.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida

Needs QB, CB, OT, ILB, DE/OLB

The Ravens need youth at CB. McCalister has been hurt and Rolle skills are diminishing quickly. The Ravens probably hope that Ryan will fall or even Gholston. They also need an OT but I think that won’t reach for Oath.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Glenn Dorsey, DT - LSU

Needs DT, DE, LB, S, TE, OT

The Bengals won’t pull a Vikings and wait to long for this pick. They are running up to the podium to get this pick in on time. They are trying to finalize a trade with the Jets for Robertson but adding Robertson and Dorsey will greatly improve this teams Defense. Dorsey has fallen because of injury concerns but at #9 he very well could be the SOD. They could also look at either DE Harvey or LB Rivers but they can’t pass up on the #1 DT.

10. New Orleans Saints – Sedrick Ellis, DT - USC

Needs CB, C, DT, TE, LB

The Saints have lost Faine to conference rival Tampa Bay but made a great trade with the Jets to get Vilma. The Saints had a very bad Defense last year. The Giants have shown what you can do with a Top Defensive line. The Saints will add a DT that they have been missing to go along with Smith and Grant on the outside.

11. Buffalo Bills – Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma

Needs DE, WR, CB, LB

The Bills have been very busy this off-season beefing up the Defense. They made a trade for Marcus Stroud they also signed Spencer Johnson (DT) and Kawika Mitchell (LB). They still could use another LB and DE on defense but they also need to get Edwards some more weapons. Kelly is the #1 rated WR in the Draft and they need a big WR to go opposite of Lee Evans.

12. Denver Broncos – Keith Rivers, LB - USC

Needs DT, OT, LB, S, WR

Denver could go with OT Chris Williams but they can’t pass up the best LB in the draft. Rivers will give them some good depth with DJ Williams in the LB core. That and they just signed LB Koutouvides from the Seahawks.

13. Carolina Panthers – Derrick Harvey, DE - Florida

Needs DE, S, DT, OT

The Panthers traded away Kris Jenkins but they did sign CB Ricardo Colclough a FA from Cleveland and brought back Muhammad after he was cut from the Bears. Since the Panthers traded a way Jenkins they need to address the DL in the draft. The Panthers will try to get the Defensive Line back to were it was with Harvey starting opposite of Peppers. They could look at improving the OL with Chris Williams as well.

14. Chicago Bears – Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt

Needs QB, RB, OT, WR, DT, S

The Bears Cut one starting WR (Muhammad) and lost the other (Berrian) to FA. With that said I think the Bears will go Offense first and often in this draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go WR here but I think they have to sure up an OL. The current starters are past their primes and Williams will be a good fit at OT for years to come. They will look at WR and/or RB in the next couple rounds.

15. Detroit Lions – Jeff Oath, OT - Pittsburgh

Needs OT, G, RB, CB, DE, DT, LB

The Lions traded away Rogers and signed former Vikings Dwight Smith. They also have LB’ers Boss Bailey and Leman in FA and don’t appear to be resigning them. The Lions have a lot of needs so they need to go BPA. They only positions that they don’t need are WR, K and P. With that said I think the Lions will sure up its OL and look Defense in the rest of the draft.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Aqib Talib, CB - Kansas
Needs OLB, CB, DE, RB, TE
The Cardinals are trying to work out a contract extension with Larry Fitzgerald to reduce his 16 million dollar cap number. Their biggest need is at CB. With that said the Top CB still on the table is Talib. They could also look at a backup or future replacement for Edge in Mendenhall or Stewart.

17. Minnesota Vikings – Limas Sweed, WR - Texas

Needs DE, WR, OT, S, TE, QB

The Vikings signed Berrian and Williams to sure up two big needs. The new front office of the Vikings believe in BPA. Even with signing of Berrian the Vikings offense still need a few more weapons. I think if Harvey was still on the board he would be the pick but since he is off they will go BPA as long as it’s not a RB. Sweed gives the Vikings another target. Deshaun Jackson size is an issue and the Vikings could reach on Merling or Campbell if in fact they want to go with a DE.

18. Houston Texans – Rashard Menenhall, RB - Illinois

Needs RB, OT, CB, S, DE

The Texans had major RB issues last year. They signed A. Green and he was injured most of the year and had to rely on Ron Dayne. With that issue they look at a RB in the first round. This is a strong RB class and I think Mendenhall edges out Stewart for the #2 RB in this class. They still need a OT but they need to go with the best Value and that is at RB.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – Phillip Merling, DE - Clemson

Needs DE, WR, S, LB, OT/G

The Eagles made a big splash by signing Samuel in FA. They cut Kearse and it’s rumored that they are shopping Leto Shepard. I think that the Eagles will try to replace Kearse with Merling. They could go with a WR or OL at this pick but they will look at getting the Defense back to were it was a couple years ago.


20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jonathan Stewart, RB - Oregon

Needs WR, CB, RB, QB

The Bucs signed Faine to a Large contract to take care of one of its needs and they will look at addressing another need and that would be some playmakers on Offense. I could see them trying to get playmaker DeSean Jackson but I think they need to take Stewart since he is a Great Value pick to go along with a Need. I see them taking a WR in round 2.

21. Washington Redskins – Devin Thomas

Needs DE, WR, S, OT, CB

The Redskins are strapped with a Salary Cap issue so they won’t be looking at to many FA. They resigned Collins but they still need a big WR to replace Lloyd and they need to fill some holes on Defense. Thomas had a strong combine and it could pay off with getting selected in the first round. DeSean Jackson could be a pick here but they already have two smaller WR in Santana Moss and Randell El.

22. Dallas Cowboys – DeSean Jackson, WR - Cal

Needs DE, WR, CB, LB, DT

The Cowboys have 2 first round picks so don’t be surprised if they trade up to get McFadden. I think everyone knows that Jerry Jones is an Alum of Arkansas and if he can’t get McFadden look at him trying to get Jones later in the 1st round.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Branden Albert, OG - Virginia

Needs OG, DE, G, C, RB

The Steelers have taken a hit on its OL with Faneca signing with the Jets. Plus the OL is just plain OLD! Look for them to fill the OL needs in this draft. This is a complete NEED pick.

24. Tennessee Titans – Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, CB – Tenn. St.

Needs DE, WR, DT, CB, C

The Titans are letting Pacman Jones try to find a new home and might just end up cutting him. They have also resigned Gage but cut Givens to reduce an already poor group of WR. The Titans also have not resigned current DE FA Odom or LaBoy. They did sign Alge Crumpler to 2 year deal which will help in the passing game. Rodgers-Cromartie stock is rising and is a cousin of Chargers Antonio Cromartie.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Kentwan Balmer, DT – North Carolina

Needs DT, RB, OT, TE, G

The Seahawks need to find a back up for Shaun Alexander since he hasn’t been able to stay healthy from his MVP 2 years ago. I think they would take Jonathan Stewart in a heart beat if he was still on the board and Felix Jones just doesn’t seem like the right fit. With that the Seahawks need to strengthen up a weak interior defensive line. Balmer is rising fast and will be a good pick for the Hawks.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quentin Groves, DE - Auburn

Needs DE, CB, S, OL, WR

The Jaguars have traded Marcus Stroud to the Bills and have lost McCray to the Saints and Wilford to the Dolphins. They have also added WR Jerry Porter and made a trade for Troy Williamson (I don’t know why. The boy can’t catch a ball). The Jaguars have been built on its defense and look to improve a poor pass rush with the best pass rushing DE left on the board.

27. San Diego Chargers – Gosder Cherilus, OT – Boston College

Needs OT, NT, S, CB, RB, FB

They cut last years starting OT in Olivea and FB Neal. An top backup RB Turner signed with the Falcons. Chargers could go with the best player but I think they will look to fill the void at OT with Cherilus. Cherilus stock is rising after a strong performance at the Senior Bowl.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Felix Jones

Needs DE, WR, CB, LB, DT

The Cowboys have 2 first round picks so don’t be surprised if they trade up to get McFadden. The way I have this Mock setup Jerry Jones still gets an Arkansas RB and will fit in well with MBIII.

29. S.F. 49ers – Early Doucet, WR - LSU

Needs WR, OT, LB, DT

The 49ers signed DE Justin Smith , WR Issac Bruce and signed RB Foster to back up Frank Gore. It looks like the 49ers won’t be bringing Larry Allen and Kwame Harris back on the OL. They also cut Derek Smith which signed with the Chargers. They could also look at James Hardy or LB Dan Connor. An they need to get younger at WR with Darrell Jackson and Issac Bruce as the starting WR’s.

30. Green Bay Packers – Reggie Smith, DB - Oklahoma

Needs CB, OT, S, TE,

Green Bay traded away Corey Williams to the Browns but they have a solid Defensive line with good depth. The Packers could take a TE since Bubba Franks is past his prime and Donald Lee is good but they could use a better receiving TE. With that said I think they will look to try and sure up the Secondary. Reggie Smith can play CB or S. Smith would give the Packers some versatility in the secondary.

31. New England Patriots – Forfeited Pick

32. New York Giants – Dan Connor, LB – Penn State

Needs LB, S, OT, WR

The Giants have lost starting S Wilson to the Raiders, LB Mitchell to the Bills and LB Torbor to the Dolphins. This was a toss up for me. I could see them taking Phillips Safety from Miami with this pick since they lost Wilson to the Raiders. But with losing 2 LB’ers they are very thin and Connor is a quality LB that can come in right away and start.

NORWOOD OR MCFADDEN COULD BE FALCONS LEAD BACK

As this year's coaching carousel continues to spin, one thing is for certain, the Atlanta Falcons just switched offensive philosophies. Gone is the Bobby Petrino spread offense, short circuited by Joey Harrington over throws and Michael Jenkins drops. Replacing it will be a return of the power rushing attack. Where's T.J. Duckett when you need him?

New Falcons coach Mike Smith comes from the Jacksonville Jaguars system, where the offense sports two smash mouth backs and a game-managing quarterback. His offensive cooridinator is Mike Mularkey, who was the offensive cooridinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the early 2000s. Everywhere he's been, that team has been able to to run the football effectively. This is good news for those eye-balling Jerious Norwood or Warrick Dunn. If the staff believes that Dunn still has gas in the tank like Fred Taylor did in 2007, he could still be worthy of an occasional fantasy start or an every week third-back starter in extremely deep leagues (10-12 plus team leagues).

Needless to say, the Falcons will not lean heavy on Dunn, which means another Falcons running back could make a fantasy impact similar to Deangelo Williams or Maurice Jones-Drew did in the most recent season. Smart money is that it will be third year man Jerious Norwood. He's got game-breaking speed and might be suited best in a 10-12 touch role, but Mularkey is known for creating inventive plays for role or part time players. The only major drawback for Norwood is his inability to stay healthy. The rigors of the regular season seem to take it's toll on him in each of his first two seasons.

There is no question that the Atlanta Falcons will be looking to bring a new quarterback to camp for '08, but something tells me that Mike Smith might already be on a short lease by virtue of having to work for an antsy owner like Arthur Blank. Mularkey has a history of having moderate offensive success with quarterbacks of the pedigree of Joey Harrington at the helm, so it wouldn't surprise me if the Falcons draft a legit franchise back like Darren McFadden instead of Matt Ryan.

In the NFL, rookie runners generally make bigger impacts than rookie quarterbacks. The most recent example, Adrian Peterson, proves a young stud can win several more games for you, which is exactly what Mike Smith is hoping for for his first season.

Baltimore Blah

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti set his franchise back by hiring an inexperienced coach, John Harbaugh. I could be completely wrong here, but this roster is a veteran laiden team. One that won 13-games in 2006. In fact, I felt the Ravens were a good free agent QB away from making an impact in 2008. Now the Ravens could set themselves up to a pre-mature rebuilding. One more subpar year and this team will start to dismantle it's current core of players. The firing of Brian Billick wasn't completely unreasonable, but the subsequent hiring of the new coach was.

Dolphin Running Backs Have Value

Whoever ends up carrying the load in Miami, will be a guy you can comfortably put on your fantasty roster. If all goes well, Ronnie Brown could finish with what he started in '07. He added power to his game after the '06 season, showing that the guy is willing to work. Then there is the extention of Ricky Williams contract. With a young Lorenzo Booker averaging 4.5 yards a pop and catching 28 passes, the fins have depth.

Additionally Bill Parcells and new coach Tony Sparano prefer running attacks versus the flash of a passing game. Parcells and company might give the current depth chart of quarterbacks a chance to win the job in '08. If either John Beck or Cleo Lemon wins the starting job, look for the Dolphins to lean on two Miami running backs.

TIME TO LAY OFF MANNING AND RIVERS

I knew Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers were no Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but it doesn't mean that they are as bad as the press made them out to be around the midpoint of the regular season. Everyone was piling on, including c-rate journalists. It's funny that these guys are going to be linked together because of the draft day trade that brought them to their teams. The dividends are beginning to payoff for both young quarterbacks and the teams that gambled to get them.

Phillip Rivers threw some picks against the Patriots in the 21-12 loss in the AFC championship, but showed enough guts and moxie on one healthy knee to keep his team in the game. A play here or there could have made a difference and remember the Patriots went back to their clock killing days with Laurence Maroney playing the role of Corey Dillon to burn out most of the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, Eli Manning made more than a handful of great throws to upset the Green Bay Packers. The Packers, Patriots, and Cowboys played like the 1998 Minnesota Vikings offense; unbelievable aerial games - complimented with a solid rushing attack. The Giants have now beaten two of those three teams and now are set to rematch the Patriots, the team they nearly beat in the regular season finale.

I doubt the Giants will win, but it's not impossible. The Patriots will benefit playing in a warm weather environment and with two weeks to prepare, Bill Belicheck and that staff will probably ground Eli Manning more than they did in that last game. I've got the Pats winning another Super Bowl in historic fashion, 38-27.

That being said Manning proves he can bring a team to the Super Bowl and maybe bigger things are to come for him both from a team concept and individual statistics. Manning has upgraded his fantasy draft position in my book and if they got the salary cap money - they will add another good receiver like this year's free agent prize, Bernard Berrian. Manning could have a breakout season next year.

I like Phillip Rivers too. If you decide to draft a quarterback in the mid to late rounds, with the strategy to stockpile the other skill positions first, draft Rivers. The kid is like a villainous WWE wrestler that you hate to root for but can come up on top. These guys truly proved their critics wrong and I really like what they can bring to the table in 2008.

Maroney Evolution

When Sammy Morris was carrying the load well early in the season, it looked like he was going to be the short term heir to Corey Dillon's spot in New England's offense. However, his season ending chest injury brought Laurence Maroney out of Bellicheck's dog house and he has been steadily improving since. His second straight 120 plus rushing playoff game solidifies his chance to be the lead dog for next season.

I traded Fred Taylor and Lee Evans for Maroney at my league's trading deadline. When Taylor was emerging in the second half of the season, I was really regretting that trade, since I intended Maroney to be my solid third back in my "three back offense" to compliment LT and Clinton Portis. Maroney was marvelous in the final two fantasy playoff games. After the San Diego game, he is no longer a gamble pick for next year's draft. That being said, Maroney is still a low-end number two back, unless New England doesn't sign Randy Moss.

LT Hurting

LaDainian Tomlinson's knee injury shouldn't be an issue for next season. He should be healed up by then, but one wonders if this is a sign of things to come. He has been durable the last two seasons and a fantastic performer, but isn't getting any younger. He is still a guy you should consider in the top five of the draft, but with so many wonderful young backs emerging, he is no longer the slam dunk number one pick. Heading into next year, I don't know if I wouldn't consider taking Joseph Addai or Adrian Peterson ahead of him. I'm hoping he bounces back, because he is a wonderful athlete and from all accounts a real class act. Good luck LT.

Burress Shows Heart

Plaxico Burress had a monster game against the Green Bay Packers. The game breaker recorded 11 catches for 154 yards. Playing mostly on a hobbled ankle, he was probably the wide receiver equivalent to Carson Palmer, amassing a lot of statistics when he had the big games. However, unlike Palmer, he never completely fell off. Ideally, you would like him to be a talented number two receiver, but you can do worse if he is your number one receiver. The guy is quietly putting together a very good career.

Favre and Dungy to come back

My gut is telling me this. I think Dungy will give it one more year to see if he can win the big one again, if not he'll walk away with a great track record and a lot of respect from those who worked with him and those who played against him. The same could be said with Brett Favre. Favre had a bad day against the Giants, and his gunslinger mentality reared ugly in the loss. But with the receiver depth they have in Green Bay, he can't walk away. He plays one more season too and if he plays just a little bit better in next year's playoffs, his team might just win the Super Bowl. Too early to predict this, but what a possible story line, Dungy versus Favre in what will be dubbed "The Retirement Bowl".

I leave you with a tribute to Terrell Owens. As I stated in one of my earlier blogs, the guy is truly bizarre, and truly, truly outrageous. Here's to you TO, always giving me and football fans around the country a nice chuckle. Look for the Cowboys to drop off next year thanks to the bigger knucklehead, Jerry Jones, who continues to alienate every head coach he hires.