Thursday, November 29, 2007

Multiple Choice

It’s one of those times when fantasy and reality are one and the same. Thanks to the myriad of running back injuries in week 12, both NFL and fantasy depth charts are all out of whack. The opportunist can make the best of this situation and if the gamble(s) pay off, one can add a decent sleeper pick or two to the playoff roster.

Miami Dolphins

A) Jesse Chatman has been a solid replacement when Ronnie Brown went down in week 8. He suffered a neck injury against the Steelers that looked painful but playable. Playing well with dings and dents is a trait for an upper echelon back. I’m betting that Chatman doesn’t have that.

B) After Ricky Williams left the game due to injury, the Dolphins reached down and inserted Patrick Cobbs. The mere fact that Miami resigned Samkon Gado and currently auditioning for another running back is proof to me that Cobbs is not going to be their immediate starter.

C) This situation is similar to the 2005 Samkon Gado feel good story. How can we top that? Well he just got released by Miami last week so Ricky Williams can take his roster spot. He was on his way to Kansas City to audition for a job, when Miami got him to re-sign to take Ricky William’s roster spot, which was of course, originally his. This has all the makings of a feel good sequel! Whoever gets the rock in Miami should be a decent flex play. Their offensive line has made Jesse Chatman look good and elevated the play of Ronnie Brown.

Answer: Logic says 'A', but I'm going with 'C'. Call me a sucker, but I like feel good stories. Plus he's completely healthy and has a better overall track record than even all of the Dolphins current roster, even Chatman.

Buffalo Bills

A) Anthony Thomas was a stud back for the Bears earlier this decade, but just like that he lost his mojo. Now Thomas has serviceable veteran written all over him; the guy who won’t get you beat and who’s savvy brings value to the table. A sore calf could keep him out of the game this week, but it’s an injury that NFL players have been playing on (Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles), unlike a high ankle sprain.

B) Dwayne Wright – Remember that goofy multiple choice answer your teacher gives you and you know it’s not right?

C) Fred Jackson could get the touches if the A-Train can’t make it, which could very well be the case. In general, the Buffalo backfield may not be the best bunch to look for to get a sleeper play. Unlike Miami, their offensive line has not had a particularly good season, as it seemed Lynch was getting a lot of tough yards. Their revolving door quarterbacks have not helped out either.

Answer: Once again it's 'C'. Recent reports coming out of Buffalo is that Fred Jackson has been getting most of the first team snaps. Keep an eye on that box score and monitor Lynch's progress.

Denver Broncos

A) You know Travis Henry was a guy I was targeting if I drafted late in the first round in my non-auction league, thank god I won the draw and picked first! Henry has been a nightmare to owners. It would have been less painful to see the guy go if he got suspended on the onset of his failed drug test. Instead Henry has either been out or played poorly with injuries. He looks to be the starter in week 13, but that could be his last game as suspension continues to loom.

B) Selvin Young is my roll of the dice long-term answer in Denver. Next week the playoffs start in most fantasy leagues. If I had to choose between Young or Travis Henry on my roster, I would take Young.

C) Maybe the speedy Andre Hall?

D) Maybe the fullback, Cecil Sapp?

Answer: All of the above. Hey, it’s the Denver Broncos! For the rest of 2007, you’re probably going to see each one of these guys give glimpses of being the full-time guy, but instead those shared glimpses add up to running back by committee. If you are going to follow this backfield, listen to the updates to see if the guy you picked will be getting the starting job or the majority of the carries that week.

Tennessee Titans

A) Lendale White had a torrid mid-season 3-game stretch where he was getting most of the touches and fantasy owners were looking like genuises if they picked him up late either in the draft or off the waiver wire. Now a sore toe and maybe a lack of stamina is beginning to rear it's ugly head. Maybe he's hitting a wall or maybe this is who Lendale White is; a bruising runner who will look good in stretches.

B) One of the most anonymous running backs in the league was Chris Brown. To most fantasy pundits, Chris Henry seemed to be a better fantasy play than the former 1,000yard rusher. After a torrid week 1 in which he lit up Jacksonville for 177-yards on the ground, Brown has looked the part of a split-carry back. Still, he's a better receiver than White and has more big play ability.

C) Chris Henry doesn't count because he's out for the rest of the season. I don't know if I would hold him a keeper league either, because White also figures in Tenessee's backfield.

Answer: I've been back and fourth on who I like more between the two all season. But if I had to buy stock on one of them for a fantasy playoff lineup, I'd go with Brown. He smells like Justin Fargas. A good flex play who can take control of an 'up in the air' backfield.

These muddled backfield scenarios should not be the centerpiece of your postseason success, but if you can get lucky and gamble correctly you might be able to steal yourself a playoff game or even the championship. It's not inconceivable. Last season, the Houston Texans kept auditioning their starting running back job and ultimately Ron Dayne won it. Just in time to pick up 334 yards and 5 TDs in the fantasy playoffs; 153 and 2 in week 16. Another great example in 2006 was Ladell Betts taking over for an injured Clinton Portis. The handcuff player picked up 419 yards in the fantasy playoffs; 129 and 2 in week 16. So don’t scoff, really look at those situation and see if it’s worth a roster spot for you.

The Wolfe Man

Just for giggles, I picked up Garrett Wolfe on waivers this week in one of my leagues. If you don’t know the story, the diminutive 5’7, 185 pound rookie running back was among the nation’s leading rushers last year while playing at Northern Illinois, a division I-A school. I had to drop Najeh Daven-poop in the process, which could be a mistake. In a year where it seems like every starting running back has gone down, I should probably be keeping Willie Parker’s handcuff player. But Daven-poop has done very little to inspire me and after watching some entertaining highlights of the kid on YouTube, I decided to take a flier on him.

Why not? If Warrick Dunn at 5’9 and whatever, at the age of 32, can still be putting up respectable weekly numbers (as of late), it’s not too crazy to think Wolfe might not be able to do something if he gets 10-12 touches a week...Well, maybe it is crazy, but I thought I’d have a little fun this week on waivers.

Everybody loves to watch long touchdown runs, but I thought I’d show you the clip where Wolfe puts on a wicked spin move against the vaunted Ohio State defense last year. Wolfe wound up with 285 total yards (171 rushing and 114 receiving) in that game.


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